Hair: Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) Early-Warning Score
The AGA Early-Warning Score is a specialized trichology screening tool that predicts the probability of future hair thinning and androgenetic alopecia (pattern baldness) before visible loss occurs. By analyzing genetic factors (family history), hormonal proxies (scalp sebum), and metabolic stressors (cortisol/stress, ferritin/iron, protein intake, and sleep quality), this tool provides a comprehensive risk profile and a "Follicular Recovery Forecast" for proactive hair maintenance.
Enter Values
Androgenetic alopecia has a strong polygenic inheritance pattern
1 = Very relaxed, 10 = Chronic burnout/High cortisol
Oily scalps often correlate with higher localized 5-alpha reductase activity
Optimal hair growth usually requires ferritin >70 ng/mL
Hair is 90% keratin; 1.2g/kg is often the minimum for follicle support
Melatonin and growth hormones are critical for the anagen phase
Result
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Formula
How it works: Each marker is weighted based on its clinical correlation with hair follicle miniaturization. Family history carries the highest genetic weight (up to 50 pts), while lifestyle and metabolic factors (stress, iron, protein, sleep) contribute up to 20 pts each. Scores above 90 indicate high risk of active follicular miniaturization.
Worked Example
Understanding the Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) Early-Warning System
Hair loss is rarely an overnight event; it is usually a multi-year process of follicular miniaturization. The AGA Early-Warning Score identifies the biochemical and genetic "potholes" that trigger this process before visible thinning is apparent on the scalp. By addressing these markers early, the "Follicular Recovery Forecast" remains high.
- Genetics (Family History) provides the blueprint, but epigenetics (lifestyle) determines the timing and severity of loss
- High Stress (Cortisol) can push follicles into the telogen (resting) phase prematurely, a condition known as Telogen Effluvium
- Scalp Sebum is a proxy for DHT (Dihydrotestosterone) activity; excess oil often indicates higher follicular sensitivity
- Ferritin (Iron) acts as a fuel for the rapidly dividing cells in the hair bulb; levels below 70 ng/mL can stall growth
- Protein (Amino Acids) are the literal building blocks of the hair shaft; deficiency leads to brittle, thin-diameter hair
- Sleep Quality regulates melatonin, a potent antioxidant that protects follicles from oxidative stress and promotes anagen (growth)
The Follicular Recovery Forecast provides a percentage-based estimate of growth potential. As risk scores rise, follicles spend less time in the growth phase and more time shrinking, making the recovery forecast drop.
You can also calculate changes using our BMI Calculator, Biological Age Calculator (PhenoAge) or Corrected Age Calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Follicular Recovery Forecast?
It is a theoretical estimate of how much growth and diameter you can recover if you start clinically-proven interventions (like DHT blockers, minoxidil, or nutritional support) today. The higher your risk score, the more your follicles have miniaturized, which lowers the forecast over time.
Why does the calculator ask about my protein intake?
Hair is composed of 85-90% keratin, a fibrous protein. If your intake is low (below 0.8g to 1.0g per kg of body weight), the body prioritizes protein for vital organs, often "stealing" resources from the hair follicles, leading to thinning and lack of volume.
How is sleep related to hair loss?
Sleep is when the body produces growth hormone and melatonin. Melatonin has been shown in clinical studies to extend the "Anagen" (growth) phase of the hair cycle. Chronic sleep deprivation (under 6 hours) creates a state of systemic inflammation that can accelerate genetic thinning.
Can an oily scalp cause hair to fall out?
An oily scalp itself doesn't cause the fall, but it is often a "canary in the coal mine." Sebum production is regulated by androgens (like DHT). If your scalp is excessively oily, it suggests higher androgen activity in the follicles, which is the primary driver of AGA.
What is a "good" ferritin level for hair?
While labs often list a "normal" range starting as low as 15 or 20 ng/mL, trichologists generally agree that a ferritin level of at least 70 ng/mL is optimal for supporting the high metabolic demands of hair growth. Levels below 30 ng/mL are strongly associated with increased shedding.
Is AGA risk the same as being "guaranteed" to go bald?
No. The score indicates your probability and the current metabolic "load" on your follicles. High risk means your follicles are under pressure. Early intervention with lifestyle changes and clinical treatments can often halt or significantly delay progress regardless of genetic load.
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Medical Disclaimer
This calculator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult a qualified healthcare provider before making any decisions based on these results. Do not disregard or delay seeking medical advice because of information obtained from this tool.
AI Assistant
Ask about this calculator
I can help you understand the hair: androgenetic alopecia (aga) early-warning score formula, interpret your results, and answer follow-up questions.
Try asking
Our AI assistant provides general estimates and advice only. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before making any health-related decisions.
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